UK Non-Commodity Charge · Auto-generated
Gas Shrinkage
Current rates, who sets them, and where they are forecast to go.
What Gas Shrinkageis, who sets the rate, what the revenue funds, and where it's heading. Sourced daily from the Purely Energy non-commodity cost data hub.
Roughly 0.5 to 1.5% of a typical UK business gas bill
Gas Shrinkage: what it is, who charges it, and what it pays for
What it is
The Gas Shrinkage charge in plain English
Gas lost in the distribution network through leakage, own-use, and unaccounted-for gas (UIG). Charged as a percentage uplift on throughput by GDNs. The cost to you depends on the wholesale gas price, shrinkage % × wholesale p/kWh = your cost in p/kWh.
Introduced Inherent to gas distribution since privatisation.
Who charges it
The body that sets the rate
GDNs, published annually. Ofgem monitors via AQDS submissions
Unit
%
Applies to
UK business gas
What it pays for
Where the revenue ends up
Compensating for gas lost between NTS offtake and your meter
Share of typical bill
0.5 to 1.5%
Gas Distribution Networks recover shrinkage (own-use, theft, leakage) at roughly 0.5 to 1.5% of a non-domestic gas bill, set by Ofgem each charging year.
Forecast trajectory
AI-assisted forecasts from our deep-research pipeline. P10, P50 and P90 are the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile outcomes; P50 is the central estimate.
| Year | P10 | P50 | P90 | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.7991 | 0.8323 | 0.8655 | med | RIIO-GD3 transition creates methodology uncertainty but iron mains replacement programmes provide structural support |
| 2027-28 | 0.7908 | 0.8240 | 0.8572 | med | Iron mains replacement benefits begin materialising though delivery risks remain from supply chain constraints |
| 2028-29 | 0.7747 | 0.8070 | 0.8393 | med | Cumulative infrastructure improvements and leak detection technology deployment accelerate shrinkage reductions |
| 2029-30 | 0.7563 | 0.7877 | 0.8191 | med | Structural improvements continue but easier efficiency gains captured, moderating rate of decline |
| 2030-31 | 0.7675 | 0.7995 | 0.8315 | low | Declining gas throughput begins offsetting infrastructure improvements, pushing shrinkage percentages upward |
| 2031-32 | 0.7139 | 0.8300 | 0.9200 | low | Highly uncertain due to absent RIIO-GD4 framework and accelerating demand decline impacts |
| 2032-33 | 0.7566 | 0.8784 | 0.9742 | low | Speculative estimate assuming aging infrastructure effects dominate as easier replacement targets completed |
| 2033-34 | 0.7939 | 0.9223 | 1.023 | low | Progressive increase reflects assumption of continued demand decline and infrastructure aging effects |
| 2034-35 | 0.8459 | 0.9823 | 1.090 | low | Directional estimate subject to fundamental uncertainties about energy transition and regulatory framework |
Gas Shrinkage FAQs
What is the Gas Shrinkage charge?
Gas lost in the distribution network through leakage, own-use, and unaccounted-for gas (UIG). Charged as a percentage uplift on throughput by GDNs. The cost to you depends on the wholesale gas price, shrinkage % × wholesale p/kWh = your cost in p/kWh.
Who sets the Gas Shrinkage rate?
The Gas Shrinkage rate is set by GDNs, published annually. Ofgem monitors via AQDS submissions.
What does Gas Shrinkage pay for?
Gas Shrinkage revenue supports Compensating for gas lost between NTS offtake and your meter.
What is the Gas Shrinkage forecast?
Our latest forecast for 2026-27 is 0.8323 % (med confidence). RIIO-GD3 transition creates methodology uncertainty but iron mains replacement programmes provide structural support
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Rate data sourced from the Purely Energy non-commodity cost data hub (dh.purelyenergy.co.uk). Published rates come from statutory publications by the body listed above. Forecasts are AI-generated from published guidance and market trends; treat P50 as a central estimate and reference P10/P90 for sensitivity.